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The new version of the global risk prevention map (pdf link in the comments) is now available, and it’s accompanied by the recently published article \”Approaches for the Prevention of Global Catastrophic Risks.\”
Abstract: X-risks are global catastrophic and existential threats that threaten humankind’s existence. Many ideas exist for their prevention. However, the problem is that they are not well-structured. It is difficult to select the best plan or implement it in the right order because of this lack of structure. I recommend using the \”Plan A and Plan B\” model. It has been proven to be effective in planning in unpredictable environments. This approach uses Plan B as a backup plan, which is implemented in the event that Plan A fails. If global risks are involved, Plan A is meant to prevent a disaster and Plan B is to survive one if that catastrophe cannot be avoided. Each plan follows a similar sequence: analysis, planning and funding, low level realization, high level realization. The two variables of plans and stages provide a solid basis for the classification of all possible X risks prevention methods. This is done in the form a two-dimensional diagram, allowing for the selection of the optimal path for human survival. I created a framework to estimate the utility of different prevention methods, based on the likelihood of their success, the chance that they can be realized within a reasonable time frame, their opportunity costs, and their risks. I distinguish top-down from bottom-up approaches.
Source:
http://immortality-roadmap.com/globriskeng.pdf
